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Rotherham vs Bolton — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
S. Nombe 76'
R. James 45+6'
M. Wilks 34' (pen)
J. McAtee 86'
1/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 16AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rotherham32%
×Draw24%
Bolton44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.34
Bolton
1.63

Bolton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.29
Bolton
1.54

allows per match

Rotherham
1.72
Bolton
1.39

finishing

Rotherham-0.15scores less
Bolton-0.36scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
56%
Rotherham or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
68%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
14%
Bolton wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
74%
Rotherham 2+ goals
39%
Rotherham 3+ goals
15%
Bolton 1+ goals
80%
Bolton 2+ goals
48%
Bolton 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
42%
Bolton (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.72 · 7 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.29 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bolton attack 1.54 + Rotherham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotherham scores more
32%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
44%

Bolton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. WilksRotherhamRotherham · M
8.2

Match Events

15'
Cameron Humphreys
33'
Ricardo Santos
34'
M. WilksPenalty
45+6'
R. James↳ C. Humphreys
60'
D. Charles← G. Thomason
60'
J. Dacres-Cogley← R. Williams
67'
C. Bramall← A. MacDonald
76'
S. Nombe
86'
J. McAtee↳ D. Charles

Possession

45%Rotherham

Shots

20Rotherham

Pass accuracy

46%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBolton
Overview
45%Possession55%
20Total Shots12
7Corners1
9Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots12
7On Target2
10Off Target7
3Blocked3
15Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
299Total Passes383
192Accurate Passes284
64%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

League One: Rotherham 3–1 Bolton

Rotherham beat Bolton 3-1 in League One on January 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Wilks (34' pen), R. James (45+6'), S. Nombe (76'), J. McAtee (86').

Bolton controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.