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Rotherham vs Bolton — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Bolton
Bolton
J. Hastie 65'
C. Morris 55', 40'
F. Ladapo 53', 28'
B. Wiles 14'
T. Verlinden 4'
9/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 8AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Rotherham35%
×Draw24%
Bolton41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.43
Bolton
1.57

Bolton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.45
Bolton
1.51

allows per match

Rotherham
1.63
Bolton
1.41

finishing

Rotherham-0.27scores less
Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
59%
Rotherham or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
16%
Bolton wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
76%
Rotherham 2+ goals
42%
Rotherham 3+ goals
17%
Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
46%
Bolton 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
46%
Bolton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.45 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bolton attack 1.51 + Rotherham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more
35%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
41%

Bolton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. LadapoRotherhamRotherham · F
9.1

Match Events

4'
T. Verlinden↳ A. Crawford
14'
B. Wiles↳ M. Olosunde
28'
F. Ladapo
37'
Jamie Lindsay
39'
J. Lowe← J. Weir
40'
C. Morris↳ M. Ihiekwe
53'
F. Ladapo↳ J. Lindsay
55'
C. Morris
62'
R. Darcy← L. Murphy
65'
J. Hastie
67'
M. Smith← C. Morris
67'
S. MacDonald← J. Hastie
75'
D. Barlaser← J. Lindsay
77'
Matt Crooks

Possession

50%Rotherham

Shots

24Rotherham

Pass accuracy

52%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBolton
Overview
50%Possession50%
24Total Shots6
3Corners5
16Fouls7
Shots
24Total Shots6
9On Target2
9Off Target3
6Blocked1
18Inside Box3
6Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
411Total Passes418
314Accurate Passes289
76%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Bolton

Rotherham beat Bolton 6-1 in League One on September 14, 2019.

Goals: T. Verlinden (4'), B. Wiles (14'), F. Ladapo (28', 53'), C. Morris (40', 55'), J. Hastie (65').

Rotherham controlled possession (50%) and registered 24 shots to 6.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.