Rotherham 0–3 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Blackpool

A. Fletcher 85'

T. Bloxham 18'

D. Imray 2'

12/10/2025

League One · Round 19Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Rotherham43%

×Draw25%

Blackpool32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.31

Rotherham

1.56

Blackpool

1.31

Rotherham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

0.94

1.69

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Rotherham

1.38

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Rotherham

1.69

Blackpool

1.75

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.38scores less

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

68%

Rotherham or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

57%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

22%

Blackpool wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

79%

Rotherham 2+ goals

46%

Rotherham 3+ goals

21%

Blackpool 1+ goals

73%

Blackpool 2+ goals

38%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

57%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 8 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.38 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Rotherham defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotherham scores more

43%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

32%

Rotherham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Peacock-Farrell

Blackpool · G

8.3

Match Events

2'

D. Imray↳ J. Bowler

18'

T. Bloxham

20'

Jordan Brown

28'

J. Baptiste← R. James

45'

Kian Spence

45+4'

M. Kaleta← J. Benson

46'

T. Holmes← H. Douglas

61'

Bailey Peacock-Farrell

62'

A. Lyons← D. Imray

62'

A. Morgan← J. Bowler

81'

C. Hamilton← T. Bloxham

81'

Z. Ashworth← J. Husband

82'

Fraser Horsfall

85'

A. Fletcher↳ C. Hamilton

86'

L. Evans← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBlackpool

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots11

2.03Expected Goals (xG)1.49

10Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target8

11Off Target3

2Blocked0

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

367Total Passes284

273Accurate Passes191

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1