Rotherham 3–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

G. Kelly 85'

W. Harding 82'

C. Ogbene 34'

9/14/2022

Championship · Round 10AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rotherham42%

×Draw26%

Blackpool31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.17

Rotherham

1.41

Blackpool

1.17

Rotherham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

1.30

creates per match

0.92

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Rotherham

1.30

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Rotherham

1.41

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

69%

Rotherham or Blackpool

74%

Draw or Blackpool

58%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

20%

Blackpool wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

76%

Rotherham 2+ goals

41%

Rotherham 3+ goals

17%

Blackpool 1+ goals

69%

Blackpool 2+ goals

33%

Blackpool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

58%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.30 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more

42%

level

26%

Blackpool scores more

31%

Rotherham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

W. Harding

Rotherham · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

C. Ogbene↳ R. Wood

56'

S. Lavery← I. Poveda-Ocampo

63'

T. Bola← C. Bramall

66'

C. Patino← C. Connolly

73'

Oliver Rathbone

76'

G. Kelly← C. Washington

80'

Jordan Thorniley

81'

S. High← O. Rathbone

81'

C. Humphreys← B. Norton-Cuffy

82'

W. Harding↳ T. Bola

84'

S. Carey← K. Dougall

84'

C. Wright← R. Williams

85'

G. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBlackpool

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots6

5Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target1

6Off Target4

1Blocked1

9Inside Box3

2Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

352Total Passes380

234Accurate Passes265

66%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2