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Rotherham vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
1/14/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Rotherham39%
×Draw26%
Blackburn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.36
Blackburn
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 186 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.29
Blackburn
1.16

allows per match

Rotherham
1.42
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
65%
Rotherham or Blackburn
74%
Draw or Blackburn
61%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
18%
Blackburn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
74%
Rotherham 2+ goals
39%
Rotherham 3+ goals
16%
Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
37%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
52%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 186 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.29 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Blackburn attack 1.16 + Rotherham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotherham scores more
39%
level
26%
Blackburn scores more
35%

Rotherham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Rotherham 4–0 Blackburn

Rotherham beat Blackburn 4-0 in Championship on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.