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Rotherham vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
Z. Jules 50'
M. Browne 82'
1/24/2026League OneLeague One · Round 28Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham49%
×Draw23%
AFC Wimbledon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.78
AFC Wimbledon
1.29

Rotherham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.55
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Rotherham
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
2.01

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less
AFC Wimbledon+0.34scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
72%
Rotherham or AFC Wimbledon
77%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
51%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
27%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
83%
Rotherham 2+ goals
53%
Rotherham 3+ goals
26%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
72%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
37%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
64%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + AFC Wimbledon defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.78

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rotherham scores more
49%
level
23%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
28%

Rotherham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
M. KaletaRotherhamRotherham · M
8.2

Match Events

22'
Reece James
39'
Ryan Johnson
46'
A. Martha← D. Yearwood
48'
Patrick Bauer
50'
Z. Jules↳ M. Kaleta
60'
Harry Gray
72'
S. McWilliams← K. Spence
72'
J. Tilley← P. Bauer
72'
A. Hackford← M. Stevens
72'
Z. Nelson← J. Reeves
73'
C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte
77'
J. Hugill← S. Nombe
78'
L. Kelly← H. Gray
78'
L. Agbaire← M. Kaleta
82'
M. Browne↳ S. Seddon

Possession

45%Rotherham

Shots

16Rotherham

Pass accuracy

46%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamAFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
16Total Shots7
2.89Expected Goals (xG)1.02
8Corners4
18Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots7
6On Target1
2Off Target3
8Blocked3
11Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
253Total Passes316
152Accurate Passes224
60%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Rotherham vs AFC Wimbledon

Rotherham and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in League One on January 24, 2026.

Goals: Z. Jules (50'), M. Browne (82').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.