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Rotherham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Aesseal New York Stadium
Big match
48%
Rotherham
model favours
48%24%28%
1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham48%
×Draw24%
Accrington ST28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.66
Accrington ST
1.20

Rotherham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Accrington ST
1.02

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Accrington ST
1.57

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
72%
Rotherham or Accrington ST
76%
Draw or Accrington ST
52%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
25%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
81%
Rotherham 2+ goals
49%
Rotherham 3+ goals
23%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
63%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Accrington ST defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Accrington ST attack 1.02 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rotherham scores more
48%
level
24%
Accrington ST scores more
28%

Rotherham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotherham host Accrington ST

April 3, 2027: Rotherham take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotherham host Accrington ST at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.