Accrington ST vs Rotherham — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Accrington ST19%
Rotherham58%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rotherham creates 96% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Accrington ST ↓
Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Accrington ST at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches
Rotherham away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Accrington ST attack 1.00 + Rotherham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94
Rotherham attack 2.80 + Accrington ST defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Rotherham at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Rotherham substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsAccrington ST host Rotherham on Saturday, 26 July 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Friendlies Clubs: Accrington ST 4–1 Rotherham
Accrington ST beat Rotherham 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2025.
Goals: F. Rawson (11'), S. Whalley (20'), D. Martin (25'), L. Coyle (55'), S. Nombe (60').