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Rotenburger SV vs Werder Bremen II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rotenburger SV
Rotenburger SV
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Werder Bremen II
Werder Bremen II
1/19/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotenburger SV8%
×Draw10%
Werder Bremen II82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotenburger SV
1.38
Werder Bremen II
4.25

Werder Bremen II creates 208% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rotenburger SV
1.75
Werder Bremen II
4.25

allows per match

Rotenburger SV
4.25
Werder Bremen II
1.00

finishing

Rotenburger SV+0.00on par
Werder Bremen II+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenburger SV ↓

Werder Bremen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Rotenburger SV or draw
18%
Rotenburger SV or Werder Bremen II
90%
Draw or Werder Bremen II
92%

Winning margin

Rotenburger SV wins by 2+
3%
Werder Bremen II wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Rotenburger SV 1+ goals
75%
Rotenburger SV 2+ goals
40%
Rotenburger SV 3+ goals
16%
Werder Bremen II 1+ goals
98%
Werder Bremen II 2+ goals
91%
Werder Bremen II 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Rotenburger SV (draw refunded)
9%
Werder Bremen II (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenburger SV at home — creates 1.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen II away — creates 4.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenburger SV attack 1.75 + Werder Bremen II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Werder Bremen II attack 4.25 + Rotenburger SV defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Rotenburger SV scores more
8%
level
10%
Werder Bremen II scores more
82%

Werder Bremen II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Werder Bremen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotenburger SV 0 – 7 Werder Bremen II

Werder Bremen II beat Rotenburger SV 7-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.