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Rotenburger SV vs SV Drochtersen/Assel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rotenburger SV
Rotenburger SV
FT
1 – 5
SV Drochtersen/Assel
SV Drochtersen/Assel
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3C-Platz Sittensen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rotenburger SV11%
×Draw12%
SV Drochtersen/Assel77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotenburger SV
1.54
SV Drochtersen/Assel
3.96

SV Drochtersen/Assel creates 157% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rotenburger SV
1.75
SV Drochtersen/Assel
3.67

allows per match

Rotenburger SV
4.25
SV Drochtersen/Assel
1.33

finishing

Rotenburger SV+0.00on par
SV Drochtersen/Assel+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenburger SV ↓

SV Drochtersen/Assel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Rotenburger SV or draw
23%
Rotenburger SV or SV Drochtersen/Assel
88%
Draw or SV Drochtersen/Assel
89%

Winning margin

Rotenburger SV wins by 2+
4%
SV Drochtersen/Assel wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Rotenburger SV 1+ goals
79%
Rotenburger SV 2+ goals
45%
Rotenburger SV 3+ goals
20%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 1+ goals
98%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 2+ goals
89%
SV Drochtersen/Assel 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Rotenburger SV (draw refunded)
12%
SV Drochtersen/Assel (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenburger SV at home — creates 1.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

SV Drochtersen/Assel away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenburger SV attack 1.75 + SV Drochtersen/Assel defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

SV Drochtersen/Assel attack 3.67 + Rotenburger SV defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rotenburger SV scores more
11%
level
12%
SV Drochtersen/Assel scores more
77%

SV Drochtersen/Assel at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "SV Drochtersen/Assel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Rotenburger SV 1–5 SV Drochtersen/Assel

SV Drochtersen/Assel beat Rotenburger SV 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at C-Platz Sittensen in Sittensen.