Rotenburger SV 2–4 Oberneuland: Result & Stats

Rotenburger SV

2 – 4

Oberneuland

8/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SPA Borgfeld, Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rotenburger SV24%

×Draw16%

Oberneuland60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotenburger SVExpected goals in this matchOberneuland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

3.50

Rotenburger SV

2.25

Oberneuland

3.50

Oberneuland creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

2.75

4.25

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Rotenburger SV

1.75

Oberneuland

2.75

allows per match

Rotenburger SV

4.25

Oberneuland

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotenburger SV+0.00on par

Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenburger SV ↓

Oberneuland →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Rotenburger SV or draw

40%

Rotenburger SV or Oberneuland

84%

Draw or Oberneuland

76%

Winning margin

Rotenburger SV wins by 2+

12%

Oberneuland wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Rotenburger SV 1+ goals

89%

Rotenburger SV 2+ goals

65%

Rotenburger SV 3+ goals

39%

Oberneuland 1+ goals

97%

Oberneuland 2+ goals

85%

Oberneuland 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Rotenburger SV (draw refunded)

28%

Oberneuland (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rotenburger SV at home — creates 1.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rotenburger SV attack 1.75 + Oberneuland defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Oberneuland attack 2.75 + Rotenburger SV defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rotenburger SV scores more

24%

level

16%

Oberneuland scores more

60%

Oberneuland at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Oberneuland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff