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Rotenberg vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rotenberg
Rotenberg
FT
6 – 5
HT: 3 – 2
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
5/17/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 22Waldstadion Lingenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rotenberg58%
×Draw18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotenberg
2.77
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.75

Rotenberg creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rotenberg
2.32
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.62

allows per match

Rotenberg
1.89
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.23

finishing

Rotenberg+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenberg ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Rotenberg or draw
76%
Rotenberg or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
82%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
42%

Winning margin

Rotenberg wins by 2+
39%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotenberg 1+ goals
94%
Rotenberg 2+ goals
76%
Rotenberg 3+ goals
51%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
83%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
52%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rotenberg (draw refunded)
71%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenberg at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenberg attack 2.32 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.77

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + Rotenberg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rotenberg scores more
58%
level
18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
24%

Rotenberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rotenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotenberg vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Rotenberg beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 6-5 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Waldstadion Lingenau in Lingenau.