Rotenberg 6–3 Rot-Weiß Rankweil: Result & Stats

Rotenberg

FT

6 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

10/3/2020

Regionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 12Sportplatz Fc Langenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rotenberg49%

×Draw20%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotenbergExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Rankweil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.84

Rotenberg

2.31

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.84

Rotenberg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 52 away

1.61

creates per match

1.79

1.89

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Rotenberg

1.61

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.79

allows per match

Rotenberg

1.89

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotenberg+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenberg ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Rotenberg or draw

69%

Rotenberg or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

80%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

51%

Winning margin

Rotenberg wins by 2+

29%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotenberg 1+ goals

90%

Rotenberg 2+ goals

67%

Rotenberg 3+ goals

40%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

84%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

55%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rotenberg (draw refunded)

61%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenberg at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenberg attack 1.61 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Rotenberg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rotenberg scores more

49%

level

20%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

31%

Rotenberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rotenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff