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Rotenberg vs Göfis — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rotenberg
Rotenberg
FT
4 – 3
Göfis
Göfis
8/10/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 1Waldstadion Lingenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rotenberg51%
×Draw20%
Göfis29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotenberg
2.33
Göfis
1.76

Rotenberg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Rotenberg
2.32
Göfis
1.63

allows per match

Rotenberg
1.89
Göfis
2.35

finishing

Rotenberg+0.00on par
Göfis+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenberg ↓

Göfis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Rotenberg or draw
71%
Rotenberg or Göfis
80%
Draw or Göfis
49%

Winning margin

Rotenberg wins by 2+
31%
Göfis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rotenberg 1+ goals
90%
Rotenberg 2+ goals
67%
Rotenberg 3+ goals
41%
Göfis 1+ goals
83%
Göfis 2+ goals
52%
Göfis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rotenberg (draw refunded)
63%
Göfis (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenberg at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Göfis away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.35 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenberg attack 2.32 + Göfis defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.33

Göfis attack 1.63 + Rotenberg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rotenberg scores more
51%
level
20%
Göfis scores more
29%

Rotenberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rotenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotenberg vs Göfis

Rotenberg beat Göfis 4-3 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion Lingenau in Lingenau.