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Rotenberg vs Dornbirner SV — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rotenberg
Rotenberg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
11/5/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Sportplatz Fc Langenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rotenberg39%
×Draw21%
Dornbirner SV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotenberg
1.92
Dornbirner SV
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Rotenberg
2.32
Dornbirner SV
1.96

allows per match

Rotenberg
1.89
Dornbirner SV
1.52

finishing

Rotenberg+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotenberg ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Rotenberg or draw
61%
Rotenberg or Dornbirner SV
79%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
61%

Winning margin

Rotenberg wins by 2+
21%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rotenberg 1+ goals
85%
Rotenberg 2+ goals
57%
Rotenberg 3+ goals
30%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
85%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
57%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Rotenberg (draw refunded)
50%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotenberg at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotenberg attack 2.32 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dornbirner SV attack 1.96 + Rotenberg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotenberg scores more
39%
level
21%
Dornbirner SV scores more
39%

Rotenberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotenberg vs Dornbirner SV

Rotenberg and Dornbirner SV drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on November 5, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg in Langenegg.