Rota 2–5 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Rota

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Real Betis II

Sergio Ceballos 44'

Luis Lara 40'

Roberto González 89'

Mizzian 85', 26'

Abreu 79'

Raúl García 21'

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rota30%

×Draw26%

Real Betis II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotaExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.50

Rota

1.20

Real Betis II

1.50

Real Betis II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 16 away

1.33

creates per match

1.75

1.24

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Rota

1.33

Real Betis II

1.75

allows per match

Rota

1.24

Real Betis II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rota+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Real Betis II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rota or draw

56%

Rota or Real Betis II

74%

Draw or Real Betis II

70%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+

13%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals

70%

Rota 2+ goals

34%

Rota 3+ goals

12%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

78%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

44%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)

41%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rota scores more

30%

level

26%

Real Betis II scores more

44%

Real Betis II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

26'

40'

44'

46'

David Orihuela← Juan Harana

61'

Rodri← P. Akouokou

70'

Roberto González← Álex Meléndez

73'

Daniel Lainez← Ramon

78'

Ángel Baena← Iván Navarro

79'

Abreu

80'

Alejandro De Rueda← Carlos Del Río

85'

Mizzian

89'

Roberto González

Rota

Real

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Romerito

46'▲David Orihuela←▼Juan Harana

73'▲Daniel Lainez←▼Ramon

80'▲Alejandro De Rueda←▼Carlos Del Río

Rota substitutes

OrihuelaLainezRueda

Manager: Manel Ruano

61'▲Rodri←▼P. Akouokou

70'▲Roberto González←▼Álex Meléndez

78'▲Ángel Baena←▼Iván Navarro

Real Betis II substitutes

RodriGonzálezBaena

Match Recap: Rota vs Real Betis II

Real Betis II beat Rota 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 24, 2019.

Goals: Raúl García (21'), Mizzian (26', 85'), Luis Lara (40'), Sergio Ceballos (44'), Abreu (79'), Roberto González (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.

Rota vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rota vs Real Betis II