Rota 3–1 Pozoblanco: Result & Stats

Rota

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pozoblanco

Ramon 83'

Javi Valenzuela 52'

Luis Lara 38'

Fran Gómez 63'

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rota46%

×Draw26%

Pozoblanco28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotaExpected goals in this matchPozoblanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Rota

1.46

Pozoblanco

1.09

Rota creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

1.33

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Rota

1.33

Pozoblanco

0.94

allows per match

Rota

1.24

Pozoblanco

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rota+0.00on par

Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Pozoblanco →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rota or draw

72%

Rota or Pozoblanco

74%

Draw or Pozoblanco

54%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+

22%

Pozoblanco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals

77%

Rota 2+ goals

43%

Rota 3+ goals

18%

Pozoblanco 1+ goals

66%

Pozoblanco 2+ goals

30%

Pozoblanco 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)

62%

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rota scores more

46%

level

26%

Pozoblanco scores more

28%

Rota at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Carlos Puyi← David García

38'

Luis Lara

46'

Christian López← Antonio Sillero

52'

Javi Valenzuela

58'

Zara← Moro

58'

Carlos Moreno← Samu González

63'

T. Montenegro← Ángel Lara

63'

Fran Gómez

65'

Ramon← Javi Valenzuela

65'

I. Zeballos← Luis Lara

68'

Adri← David Orihuela

83'

Vicente Beltrán← Pablo Cortijo

83'

Ramon

Rota

Pozoblanco

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Valenzuel

⚽

▼

Lara

Romero

Río

Manager: Jeró

65'▲Ramon←▼Javi Valenzuela

65'▲I. Zeballos←▼Luis Lara

68'▲Adri←▼David Orihuela

83'▲Vicente Beltrán←▼Pablo Cortijo

Rota substitutes

RamonZeballosAdriBeltrán

Manager: Antonio Cobos

19'▲Carlos Puyi←▼David García

46'▲Christian López←▼Antonio Sillero

58'▲Zara←▼Moro

58'▲Carlos Moreno←▼Samu González

63'▲T. Montenegro←▼Ángel Lara

Pozoblanco substitutes

PuyiLópezZaraMorenoMontenegro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Rota 3–1 Pozoblanco

Rota beat Pozoblanco 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 24, 2022.

Goals: Luis Lara (38'), Javi Valenzuela (52'), Fran Gómez (63'), Ramon (83').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.

Rota vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Rota 3–1 Pozoblanco