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Rota vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Coria CF
Coria CF
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rota47%
×Draw26%
Coria CF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
1.50
Coria CF
1.09

Rota creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 95 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Rota
1.24
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rota or draw
72%
Rota or Coria CF
74%
Draw or Coria CF
53%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
23%
Coria CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
78%
Rota 2+ goals
44%
Rota 3+ goals
19%
Coria CF 1+ goals
66%
Coria CF 2+ goals
30%
Coria CF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
63%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rota scores more
47%
level
26%
Coria CF scores more
28%

Rota at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Rota 2–3 Coria CF

Coria CF beat Rota 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.