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Rota vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rota35%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
1.11
Ciudad de Lucena
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Rota
1.24
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rota or draw
63%
Rota or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
65%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
14%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
67%
Rota 2+ goals
30%
Rota 3+ goals
10%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
68%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
32%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
49%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rota scores more
35%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
37%

Ciudad de Lucena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rota 1 – 0 Ciudad de Lucena

Rota beat Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.