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Rota vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
CANC
00:00
Ceuta
Ceuta
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 35Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rota30%
×Draw29%
Ceuta41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
0.97
Ceuta
1.19

Ceuta creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Rota
1.24
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rota or draw
59%
Rota or Ceuta
71%
Draw or Ceuta
70%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
11%
Ceuta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
62%
Rota 2+ goals
25%
Rota 3+ goals
7%
Ceuta 1+ goals
70%
Ceuta 2+ goals
33%
Ceuta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
42%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rota scores more
30%
level
29%
Ceuta scores more
41%

Ceuta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rota host Ceuta

April 26, 2020: Rota take on Ceuta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rota host Ceuta at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.