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Rota vs AD Ceuta FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rota43%
×Draw26%
AD Ceuta FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
1.42
AD Ceuta FC
1.16

Rota creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
AD Ceuta FC
1.08

allows per match

Rota
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.50

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rota or draw
69%
Rota or AD Ceuta FC
74%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
57%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
21%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
76%
Rota 2+ goals
41%
Rota 3+ goals
17%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
69%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
32%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
58%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rota scores more
43%
level
26%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
31%

Rota at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rota vs AD Ceuta FC

Rota and AD Ceuta FC drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.