Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2–2 SSVg Velbert

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SSVg Velbert

M. Stoppelkamp 80' (pen), 20'

M. Schiebener 90+1'

R. Hilger 48'

8/4/2023

League #87 · West - 2Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen47%

×Draw26%

SSVg Velbert27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-weiss OberhausenExpected goals in this matchSSVg Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.05

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.49

SSVg Velbert

1.05

Rot-weiss Oberhausen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.31

SSVg Velbert

1.00

allows per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.10

SSVg Velbert

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓

SSVg Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw

73%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or SSVg Velbert

74%

Draw or SSVg Velbert

53%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+

24%

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals

77%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals

44%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals

19%

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

65%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

28%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)

64%

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 1.31 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

SSVg Velbert attack 1.00 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more

47%

level

26%

SSVg Velbert scores more

27%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rot-weiss Oberhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Stoppelkamp

31'

C. Diallo← L. Touray

46'

J. Erwig-Drüppel← I. Remmo

48'

R. Hilger

65'

B. Hemcke← T. Mehlich

66'

F. Holthaus← C. März

66'

M. Kleinsorge← T. Stappmann

72'

S. Mai← M. Ruzgis

78'

T. Duschke

78'

T. Duschke

80'

V. Berić← R. Hilger

80'

M. StoppelkampPenalty

89'

K. Yalcin← M. Stoppelkamp

89'

C. Ezekwem← S. Kreyer

90+1'

M. Schiebener

Rot-weiss

SSVg

1

22

5

27

6

⚽

Schiebene

23

▼

Mehlich

11

Machtemes

31

▼

Remmo

10

Kaya

21

▼

Touray

17

⚽

▼

36

3

14

2

4

▼

Stappmann

10

⚽2

▼

Stoppelka

38

Kefkir

5

▼

März

8

Ngyombo

11

▼

Kreyer

17

▼

Ruzgis

Manager: J. Nowak

66'▲F. Holthaus←▼C. März

66'▲M. Kleinsorge←▼T. Stappmann

72'▲S. Mai←▼M. Ruzgis

89'▲K. Yalcin←▼M. Stoppelkamp

89'▲C. Ezekwem←▼S. Kreyer

Rot-weiss Oberhausen substitutes

6Holthaus7Kleinsorge9Mai13Yalcin27Ezekwem19Burghard20Rexha22Kratzsch29Niemeyer

Manager: D. Pappas

31'▲C. Diallo←▼L. Touray

46'▲J. Erwig-Drüppel←▼I. Remmo

65'▲B. Hemcke←▼T. Mehlich

80'▲V. Berić←▼R. Hilger

SSVg Velbert substitutes

8Diallo7Erwig-Drüppel20Hemcke30Berić4Gabriel14Buzolli25Fauseweh33Urban