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Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Luckenwalde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luckenwalde
Luckenwalde
E. B. Gueye 40'
P. Konig 82'
1/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen36%
×Draw21%
Luckenwalde43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
1.83
Luckenwalde
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.00
Luckenwalde
1.67

allows per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.33
Luckenwalde
1.67

finishing

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par
Luckenwalde+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓

Luckenwalde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw
57%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen or Luckenwalde
79%
Draw or Luckenwalde
64%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+
19%
Luckenwalde wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals
84%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals
54%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals
28%
Luckenwalde 1+ goals
86%
Luckenwalde 2+ goals
59%
Luckenwalde 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)
46%
Luckenwalde (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Luckenwalde away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 2.00 + Luckenwalde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Luckenwalde attack 1.67 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more
36%
level
21%
Luckenwalde scores more
43%

Luckenwalde at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luckenwalde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
E. B. Gueye
82'
P. Konig
Rot-weiss
Luckenwalde
S. Gunkel
Manager: S. Gunkel
M. Braune
Manager: M. Braune

Match Recap: Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Luckenwalde

Rot-weiss Oberhausen and Luckenwalde drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2026.

Goals: E. B. Gueye (40'), P. Konig (82').