Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Fortuna Koln — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Rot-weiss Oberhausen27%
Fortuna Koln53%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Koln creates 45% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches
Fortuna Koln away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 2.20 + Fortuna Koln defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.49
Fortuna Koln attack 2.11 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Fortuna Koln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Fortuna Koln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Rot-weiss Oberhausen host Fortuna Koln on Saturday, 29 August 2020 at 13:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Rot-weiss Oberhausen host Fortuna Koln
August 29, 2020: Rot-weiss Oberhausen take on Fortuna Koln in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.