Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1–0 Borussia M'gladbach II

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia M'gladbach II

T. M. Kesim 50'

5/9/2026

League #87 · West - 33Niederrheinstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen44%

×Draw25%

Borussia M'gladbach II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-weiss OberhausenExpected goals in this matchBorussia M'gladbach II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.24

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.55

Borussia M'gladbach II

1.24

Rot-weiss Oberhausen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.31

creates per match

1.37

1.10

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.31

Borussia M'gladbach II

1.37

allows per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.10

Borussia M'gladbach II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par

Borussia M'gladbach II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓

Borussia M'gladbach II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw

69%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or Borussia M'gladbach II

75%

Draw or Borussia M'gladbach II

56%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+

22%

Borussia M'gladbach II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals

79%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals

46%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals

20%

Borussia M'gladbach II 1+ goals

71%

Borussia M'gladbach II 2+ goals

35%

Borussia M'gladbach II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)

59%

Borussia M'gladbach II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Borussia M'gladbach II away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 1.31 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Borussia M'gladbach II attack 1.37 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more

44%

level

25%

Borussia M'gladbach II scores more

31%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rot-weiss Oberhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

T. M. Kesim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff