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Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
7/19/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen22%
×Draw17%
Borussia Dortmund61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
1.69
Borussia Dortmund
2.85

Borussia Dortmund creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.20
Borussia Dortmund
3.50

allows per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.20
Borussia Dortmund
1.17

finishing

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓

Borussia Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw
39%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen or Borussia Dortmund
83%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
78%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+
10%
Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals
82%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals
50%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals
24%
Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
94%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
77%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)
26%
Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 2.20 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Borussia Dortmund attack 3.50 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more
22%
level
17%
Borussia Dortmund scores more
61%

Borussia Dortmund at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund beat Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.