Rot-weiss Essen 0–2 SSV ULM 1846: Result & Stats

Rot-weiss Essen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

SSV ULM 1846

F. Higl 81' (pen)

D. Chessa 64'

2/17/2024

League #80 · Round 26Stadion an der Hafenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rot-weiss Essen31%

×Draw23%

SSV ULM 184646%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-weiss EssenExpected goals in this matchSSV ULM 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.80

Rot-weiss Essen

1.43

SSV ULM 1846

1.80

SSV ULM 1846 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.54

2.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rot-weiss Essen

1.31

SSV ULM 1846

1.54

allows per match

Rot-weiss Essen

2.06

SSV ULM 1846

1.55

+1.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Rot-weiss Essen+1.49scores more

SSV ULM 1846+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Essen ↓

SSV ULM 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Essen or draw

54%

Rot-weiss Essen or SSV ULM 1846

77%

Draw or SSV ULM 1846

69%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Essen wins by 2+

14%

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Essen 1+ goals

76%

Rot-weiss Essen 2+ goals

42%

Rot-weiss Essen 3+ goals

17%

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

83%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

54%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Essen (draw refunded)

40%

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Essen at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Essen attack 1.31 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

SSV ULM 1846 attack 1.54 + Rot-weiss Essen defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rot-weiss Essen scores more

31%

level

23%

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

46%

SSV ULM 1846 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SSV ULM 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

C. Ortag

SSV ULM 1846 · G

7.9

Match Events

17'

José-Enrique Ríos Alonso

28'

Andreas Wiegel

59'

Philipp Strompf

64'

D. Chessa↳ B. Allgeier

69'

L. Yarbrough← P. Strompf

69'

T. Kastanaras← Léo Scienza

72'

M. Doumbouya← E. Voufack

72'

N. Kaiser← T. Eisfeld

79'

Philipp Maier

79'

S. Voelcke← I. Young

81'

F. HiglPenalty

83'

83'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rot-weissSSV

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots12

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.77

4Corners7

10Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

430Total Passes333

350Accurate Passes265

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2