Rot-weiss Essen 3–3 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

Rot-weiss Essen

AET

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hamburger SV

L. Brumme 83'

M. Doumbouya 56'

T. Müsel 42'

L. Bénes 117'

R. Glatzel 66'

B. Jatta 54', 37'

8/13/2023

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundStadion an der Hafenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rot-weiss Essen24%

×Draw20%

Hamburger SV56%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-weiss EssenExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.25

Rot-weiss Essen

1.44

Hamburger SV

2.25

Hamburger SV creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

2.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Rot-weiss Essen

1.00

Hamburger SV

2.50

allows per match

Rot-weiss Essen

2.00

Hamburger SV

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-weiss Essen+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Essen ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Essen or draw

44%

Rot-weiss Essen or Hamburger SV

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV

76%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Essen wins by 2+

11%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Essen 1+ goals

76%

Rot-weiss Essen 2+ goals

42%

Rot-weiss Essen 3+ goals

18%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

89%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

65%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Essen (draw refunded)

30%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Essen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Essen attack 1.00 + Hamburger SV defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hamburger SV attack 2.50 + Rot-weiss Essen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rot-weiss Essen scores more

24%

level

20%

Hamburger SV scores more

56%

Hamburger SV at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

B. Jatta

Hamburger SV · F

8.7

Match Events

37'

40'

42'

54'

56'

M. Doumbouya↳ A. Wiegel

59'

A. Németh← E. Krahn

66'

L. Vonić← M. Obuz

66'

R. Glatzel

72'

Ignace Van der Brempt

80'

T. Eisfeld← T. Müsel

80'

R. Berlinski← J. Ríos Alonso

81'

M. Heyer← J. Dompé

83'

L. Brumme↳ T. Eisfeld

90'

R. Königsdörffer← L. Öztunalı

90'

S. Ambrosius← D. Hadžikadunić

98'

Guilherme Ramos

105'

E. Voufack← A. Wiegel

106'

Stephan Ambrosius

114'

Y. Friessner Montas← M. Doumbouya

117'

L. Bénes↳ A. Németh

120+2'

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rot-weissHamburger

Overview

36%Possession64%

18Total Shots25

3Corners7

21Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots25

6On Target7

9Off Target8

3Blocked10

9Inside Box15

9Outside Box10

Passing

36%Possession64%

339Total Passes613

225Accurate Passes503

66%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls21

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2