Rot-Weiss Essen U19 4–1 Viktoria Köln U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Viktoria Köln U19

G. Zimmerling 90' (pen)

T. Kesim 72'

J. Kowalski 35'

O. Büyükarslan 28'

Hong Seok-ju 40'

9/12/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1948%

×Draw22%

Viktoria Köln U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.52

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.98

Viktoria Köln U19

1.52

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

1.96

creates per match

1.46

1.58

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

70%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

78%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

52%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

27%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

86%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

59%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

31%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

45%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.98

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

30%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

O. Büyükarslan

35'

J. Kowalski

40'

Hong Seok-ju

57'

F. Engelhardt← M. Aydin

71'

S. Giambra← L. de Meester de Tilbourg

72'

T. Kesim

78'

A. Osmani← T. Kesim

78'

M. Durczok← D. Kubatta

83'

V. Cetin← E. Theocharis

83'

M. Karkar← B. Heuser

90+1'

T. Aydemir← J. Kowalski

90'

G. ZimmerlingPenalty

Rot-Weiss

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Kesim

⚽

▼

Kowalski

▼

Theochari

Manager: V. Wagner

78'▲A. Osmani←▼T. Kesim

83'▲V. Cetin←▼E. Theocharis

83'▲M. Karkar←▼B. Heuser

90+1'▲T. Aydemir←▼J. Kowalski

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

OsmaniCetinKarkarAydemirKryeziuMohammedBrandes

Manager: M. Wilhelm

57'▲F. Engelhardt←▼M. Aydin

71'▲S. Giambra←▼L. de Meester de Tilbourg

78'▲M. Durczok←▼D. Kubatta

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

EngelhardtGiambraDurczokMockschanAlbertBrambachVieting

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 beat Viktoria Köln U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 12, 2021.

Goals: O. Büyükarslan (28'), J. Kowalski (35'), Hong Seok-ju (40'), T. Kesim (72'), G. Zimmerling (90' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19