Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–1 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hilden U19

E. Reck 82'

C. Mockschan 46'

11/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 10BSA Mitte 2 Kunstrasen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1955%

×Draw20%

Hilden U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.46

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.26

Hilden U19

1.46

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 9 away

1.96

creates per match

1.33

1.58

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

75%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Hilden U19

80%

Draw or Hilden U19

45%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

34%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

89%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

66%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

39%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

77%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

43%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.26

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Hilden U19 scores more

25%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Lewandowski← F. Bachmann

46'

B. Gedikli← N. Chana

46'

E. Reck← A. Osmani

46'

C. Mockschan

64'

M. Karkar← G. Swajkowski

71'

M. Beinhauer← B. Arslanboga

82'

E. Reck

85'

P. Spittmann← C. Kayser

90+2'

V. Kulinich← B. Seker

Rot-Weiss

Hilden

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Tokat

46'▲B. Gedikli←▼N. Chana

46'▲E. Reck←▼A. Osmani

64'▲M. Karkar←▼G. Swajkowski

90+2'▲V. Kulinich←▼B. Seker

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

GedikliReckKarkarKulinichDemircanBestBrune

Manager: P. Schütz

10'▲D. Lewandowski←▼F. Bachmann

71'▲M. Beinhauer←▼B. Arslanboga

85'▲P. Spittmann←▼C. Kayser

Hilden U19 substitutes

LewandowskiBeinhauerSpittmannThesis