Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

K. Kaya 21'

K. Affo 72', 28'

Yang Si-Woo 22'

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1940%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.63

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.71

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

1.96

creates per match

1.68

1.58

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

63%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

60%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

82%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

51%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

80%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

48%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

40%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

37%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

22'

28'

63'

63'

G. Acurero← B. Berzen

72'

K. Affo

73'

L. Chen← S. Gawryluk

73'

M. Barry← Y. Friessner Montas

73'

Z. Elhankouri← E. Karatzidis

76'

A. El-Chaar← A. Pesa

83'

N. Sevinmez← Yang Si-Woo

83'

S. Cankirli← K. Affo

88'

R. Nakuzola← G. Youbi

88'

M. Özdemir← D. Mossi-Sezene

88'

T. Igwesi← S. Vũ

Rot-Weiss

Fortuna

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Affo

Nikolaou

▼

Mossi-Sez

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kaya

Manager: S. Hohenberg

63'▲B. Özbek←▼K. Kaya

63'▲G. Acurero←▼B. Berzen

73'▲L. Chen←▼S. Gawryluk

73'▲M. Barry←▼Y. Friessner Montas

73'▲Z. Elhankouri←▼E. Karatzidis

88'▲R. Nakuzola←▼G. Youbi

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

ÖzbekAcureroChenBarryElhankouriNakuzolaYousfi

Manager: E. Vural

76'▲A. El-Chaar←▼A. Pesa

83'▲N. Sevinmez←▼Yang Si-Woo

83'▲S. Cankirli←▼K. Affo

88'▲M. Özdemir←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

88'▲T. Igwesi←▼S. Vũ

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

El-ChaarSevinmezCankirliÖzdemirIgwesiCzakóEgouli