Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

J. Löwe 18'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Stadion Bäuminghausstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1945%

×Draw22%

Dynamo Dresden U1933%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.56

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.86

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.56

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 80 away

1.96

creates per match

1.55

1.58

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

67%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

78%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

55%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

24%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

84%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

55%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

28%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

79%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

46%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

33%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

46'

46'

63'

63'

67'

67'

T. Kuhlmann← Z. Elhankouri

74'

C. Kosak← J. Hoffmann

74'

L. Krause← J.Saliger

Rot-Weiss

Dynamo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Hohenberg

46'▲S. Beuker←▼B. Hüning

67'▲M. Karkar←▼B. Seker

67'▲T. Kuhlmann←▼Z. Elhankouri

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

BeukerKarkarKuhlmannWinnackerEvlerLubbers

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲D. Arnold←▼M. Krause

63'▲J. Bulang←▼T. Menzel

63'▲L. Ehrlich←▼E. Zeil

74'▲C. Kosak←▼J. Hoffmann

74'▲L. Krause←▼J.Saliger

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

ArnoldBulangEhrlichKosakKrauseHradiskýHerrmann

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

Goals: J. Löwe (18').

The match was played at Stadion Bäuminghausstraße in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–1 Dynamo Dresden U19