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Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
CANC
11:00
Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 16Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1934%
×Draw22%
Borussia M'bach U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.71
Borussia M'bach U19
1.97

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 72 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.96
Borussia M'bach U19
2.35

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.58
Borussia M'bach U19
1.46

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par
Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw
56%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Borussia M'bach U19
78%
Draw or Borussia M'bach U19
66%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+
17%
Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals
82%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals
51%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals
24%
Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
86%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
58%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.35 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more
34%
level
22%
Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
44%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 host Borussia M'bach U19

April 10, 2021: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 take on Borussia M'bach U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 host Borussia M'bach U19 at Sportpark Am Hallo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.