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Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
10/18/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 9Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1935%
×Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.66
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.88

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.18

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.58
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.36

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw
57%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
78%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
65%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+
17%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals
81%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals
49%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals
23%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
85%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
56%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more
35%
level
22%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
43%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rot-Weiss
Bayer
S. Hohenberg
Manager: S. Hohenberg
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz in Essen.