Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–1 Alemannia Aachen U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

3/8/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1956%

×Draw20%

Alemannia Aachen U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.41

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.25

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.41

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.96

creates per match

1.23

1.58

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.23

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

76%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

80%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

44%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

89%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

65%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

39%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

76%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

41%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.25

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

24%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rot-Weiss

Alemannia

Manager: S. Hohenberg

Manager: C. Wissing