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Rot Weiss Ahlen vs Wanne Eickel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot Weiss Ahlen
Rot Weiss Ahlen
FT
3 – 1
Wanne Eickel
Wanne Eickel
7/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen81%
×Draw12%
Wanne Eickel7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.92
Wanne Eickel
0.75

Rot Weiss Ahlen creates 289% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.50
Wanne Eickel
1.00

allows per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
0.50
Wanne Eickel
3.33

finishing

Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par
Wanne Eickel+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot Weiss Ahlen ↓

Wanne Eickel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rot Weiss Ahlen or draw
93%
Rot Weiss Ahlen or Wanne Eickel
88%
Draw or Wanne Eickel
19%

Winning margin

Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+
61%
Wanne Eickel wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals
94%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals
78%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals
55%
Wanne Eickel 1+ goals
53%
Wanne Eickel 2+ goals
17%
Wanne Eickel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)
92%
Wanne Eickel (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot Weiss Ahlen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Wanne Eickel away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 2.50 + Wanne Eickel defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Wanne Eickel attack 1.00 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more
81%
level
12%
Wanne Eickel scores more
7%

Rot Weiss Ahlen at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Rot Weiss Ahlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Rot Weiss Ahlen 3–1 Wanne Eickel

Rot Weiss Ahlen beat Wanne Eickel 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2020.