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Rot Weiss Ahlen vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Rot Weiss Ahlen
Rot Weiss Ahlen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
4/13/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 30Wersestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen33%
×Draw23%
Gievenbeck43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.47
Gievenbeck
1.71

Gievenbeck creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.53
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.00
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot Weiss Ahlen ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rot Weiss Ahlen or draw
57%
Rot Weiss Ahlen or Gievenbeck
77%
Draw or Gievenbeck
67%

Winning margin

Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+
15%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals
77%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals
43%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals
18%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
82%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
51%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)
43%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot Weiss Ahlen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 36 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 1.53 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more
33%
level
23%
Gievenbeck scores more
43%

Gievenbeck at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Rot Weiss Ahlen 2–1 Gievenbeck

Rot Weiss Ahlen beat Gievenbeck 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Wersestadion in Ahlen.