Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1–0 Vfb Marburg: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vfb Marburg

10/12/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 12Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf57%

×Draw20%

Vfb Marburg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß WalldorfExpected goals in this matchVfb Marburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.44

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2.34

Vfb Marburg

1.44

Rot-Weiß Walldorf creates 63% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

2.55

creates per match

1.31

1.57

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2.55

Vfb Marburg

1.31

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.57

Vfb Marburg

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Walldorf ↓

Vfb Marburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or draw

77%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or Vfb Marburg

80%

Draw or Vfb Marburg

43%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+

36%

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals

90%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals

67%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals

41%

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals

76%

Vfb Marburg 2+ goals

42%

Vfb Marburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)

71%

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 2.55 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.34

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more

57%

level

20%

Vfb Marburg scores more

23%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff