Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2–4 TSV Steinbach: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

TSV Steinbach

B. Kruse 20'

T. Grunewald 13'

M. Pronichev 75'

J. Pfahl 45', 32'

J. Singer 43'

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf41%

×Draw20%

TSV Steinbach39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß WalldorfExpected goals in this matchTSV Steinbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

2.17

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2.22

TSV Steinbach

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.78

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2.78

TSV Steinbach

2.00

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2.33

TSV Steinbach

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Walldorf ↓

TSV Steinbach →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or draw

61%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or TSV Steinbach

80%

Draw or TSV Steinbach

59%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+

23%

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals

89%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals

65%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals

38%

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

89%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

64%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)

51%

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at home — creates 2.78, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 2.78 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

TSV Steinbach attack 2.00 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more

41%

level

20%

TSV Steinbach scores more

39%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

20'

32'

43'

45'

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff