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Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs TSV St. Johann — Regionalliga - West 2018

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
9/23/2023Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 9Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil42%
×Draw22%
TSV St. Johann37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.95
TSV St. Johann
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.92
TSV St. Johann
1.22

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
2.41
TSV St. Johann
1.98

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par
TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

TSV St. Johann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw
63%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil or TSV St. Johann
78%
Draw or TSV St. Johann
58%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
23%
TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
86%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
58%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
31%
TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
84%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
54%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
53%
TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.92 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.95

TSV St. Johann attack 1.22 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
42%
level
22%
TSV St. Johann scores more
37%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Rankweil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs TSV St. Johann

TSV St. Johann beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3-0 in Regionalliga - West on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Gastrastadion in Rankweil.