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Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs SVG Reichenau — Regionalliga - West 2018

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SVG Reichenau
SVG Reichenau
5/26/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 27Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil39%
×Draw21%
SVG Reichenau39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.89
SVG Reichenau
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.92
SVG Reichenau
1.39

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
2.41
SVG Reichenau
1.85

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par
SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

SVG Reichenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw
61%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil or SVG Reichenau
79%
Draw or SVG Reichenau
61%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
21%
SVG Reichenau wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
85%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
56%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
29%
SVG Reichenau 1+ goals
85%
SVG Reichenau 2+ goals
56%
SVG Reichenau 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
50%
SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

SVG Reichenau away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.92 + SVG Reichenau defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

SVG Reichenau attack 1.39 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
39%
level
21%
SVG Reichenau scores more
39%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Rankweil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2–2 SVG Reichenau

Rot-Weiß Rankweil and SVG Reichenau drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - West on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gastrastadion in Rankweil.