Rot-Weiß Rankweil 0–3 Lustenau: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lustenau

10/27/2024

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil26%

×Draw23%

Lustenau51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß RankweilExpected goals in this matchLustenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.84

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.26

Lustenau

1.84

Lustenau creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

1.00

creates per match

1.68

2.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.00

Lustenau

1.68

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

2.00

Lustenau

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

Lustenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw

49%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or Lustenau

77%

Draw or Lustenau

74%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

11%

Lustenau wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

72%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

36%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

13%

Lustenau 1+ goals

84%

Lustenau 2+ goals

55%

Lustenau 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

34%

Lustenau (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Lustenau away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.00 + Lustenau defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lustenau attack 1.68 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

26%

level

23%

Lustenau scores more

51%

Lustenau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Rot-Weiß Rankweil 0–3 Lustenau

Lustenau beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gastrastadion in Rankweil.

Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs Lustenau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Rot-Weiß Rankweil 0–3 Lustenau