Rot-Weiß Essen 5–3 FSV Zwickau: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Essen

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

FSV Zwickau

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion an der Hafenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rot-Weiß Essen56%

×Draw17%

FSV Zwickau28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß EssenExpected goals in this matchFSV Zwickau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.73

2.69

Rot-Weiß Essen

3.73

FSV Zwickau

2.69

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

4.80

creates per match

3.17

2.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Essen

4.80

FSV Zwickau

3.17

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Essen

2.20

FSV Zwickau

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Essen ↓

FSV Zwickau →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–14%

4–25%

4–35%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

74%26%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Essen or draw

72%

Rot-Weiß Essen or FSV Zwickau

83%

Draw or FSV Zwickau

44%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+

38%

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals

97%

Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals

88%

Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals

69%

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals

93%

FSV Zwickau 2+ goals

74%

FSV Zwickau 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)

67%

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

89%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Essen at home — creates 4.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

FSV Zwickau away — creates 3.17, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 4.80 + FSV Zwickau defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.73

FSV Zwickau attack 3.17 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more

56%

level

17%

FSV Zwickau scores more

28%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff