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Rot-Weiß Essen vs 1. FC Köln — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen
FT
4 – 4
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rot-Weiß Essen53%
×Draw17%
1. FC Köln30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Essen
3.23
1. FC Köln
2.44

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Essen
4.80
1. FC Köln
2.67

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Essen
2.20
1. FC Köln
1.67

finishing

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par
1. FC Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Essen ↓

1. FC Köln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Essen or draw
70%
Rot-Weiß Essen or 1. FC Köln
83%
Draw or 1. FC Köln
47%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+
35%
1. FC Köln wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals
96%
Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals
82%
Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals
61%
1. FC Köln 1+ goals
91%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
70%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)
64%
1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Essen at home — creates 4.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 4.80 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.23

1. FC Köln attack 2.67 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more
53%
level
17%
1. FC Köln scores more
30%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Rot-Weiß Essen 4–4 1. FC Köln

Rot-Weiß Essen and 1. FC Köln drew 4-4 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.