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Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
D. Yarsekou 90'
N. Tomašević 86'
C. Naumann 80'
Abdul Al Khalaf 64'
S. Konaté 53'
T. Langsteiner 43'
D. Klapija 25'
9/14/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1914%
×Draw17%
RB Leipzig U1969%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.14
RB Leipzig U19
2.66

RB Leipzig U19 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81
RB Leipzig U19
2.16

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3.15
RB Leipzig U19
1.47

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw
31%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or RB Leipzig U19
83%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
86%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
5%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
68%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
32%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
11%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
93%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
74%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
17%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
14%
level
17%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
69%

RB Leipzig U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
D. Klapija
43'
T. Langsteiner
53'
S. Konaté
64'
Abdul Al Khalaf
80'
C. Naumann
86'
N. Tomašević
90'
D. Yarsekou
Rot-Weiß
RB
T. Kost
Manager: T. Kost
S. Heidinger
Manager: S. Heidinger

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 0–7 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 7-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2025.

Goals: D. Klapija (25'), T. Langsteiner (43'), S. Konaté (53'), Abdul Al Khalaf (64'), C. Naumann (80'), N. Tomašević (86'), D. Yarsekou (90').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite in Erfurt.