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Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock U19
Hansa Rostock U19
J. Linow 89'
F. Sproģis 78'
8/10/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1924%
×Draw19%
Hansa Rostock U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.61
Hansa Rostock U19
2.50

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81
Hansa Rostock U19
1.84

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3.15
Hansa Rostock U19
2.41

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw
43%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Hansa Rostock U19
81%
Draw or Hansa Rostock U19
76%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
11%
Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
80%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
48%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
22%
Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals
92%
Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals
71%
Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
30%
Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
24%
level
19%
Hansa Rostock U19 scores more
57%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'
F. Sproģis
89'
J. Linow
Rot-Weiß
Hansa
T. Kost
Manager: T. Kost
C. Rahn
Manager: C. Rahn

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19

Hansa Rostock U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2025.

Goals: F. Sproģis (78'), J. Linow (89').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite in Erfurt.