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Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
2/21/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1920%
×Draw19%
Dynamo Dresden U1961%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.29
Dynamo Dresden U19
2.35

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 80 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.55

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3.15
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.76

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par
Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw
39%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19
81%
Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19
80%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
8%
Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
72%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
37%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
90%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
68%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
20%
level
19%
Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
61%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 21, 2026.