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Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
9/27/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1925%
×Draw20%
Carl Zeiss Jena U1954%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.50
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.26

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
1.37

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3.15
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.18

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw
46%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19
80%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19
75%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
11%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
78%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
44%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
19%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals
89%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals
66%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
25%
level
20%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more
54%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite in Erfurt.