Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 0–3 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld U19

N. Möllers 67'

T. Krüger 66' (pen)

D. Richter 17'

10/20/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1924%

×Draw20%

Arminia Bielefeld U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.29

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.29

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 62 away

0.81

creates per match

1.44

3.15

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

3.15

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw

44%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

80%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

76%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

10%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

76%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

42%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

18%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

90%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

66%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

56%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Richter

63'

A. Stephan← K. Bajramovic

66'

T. KrügerPenalty

67'

N. Möllers

72'

A. Meier← F. Lischewski

72'

D. Rank← M. Tatishvili

72'

R. Lucic← L. Weigand

76'

Y. Mohammed← C. Kobelt

78'

T. Wegener← B. Klocke

86'

K. Valentin Kruse← M. Lippert

86'

S. Wolker← D. Richter

89'

M. Fucik← A. Zaloha

Rot-Weiß

Arminia

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Kost

63'▲A. Stephan←▼K. Bajramovic

72'▲A. Meier←▼F. Lischewski

72'▲D. Rank←▼M. Tatishvili

72'▲R. Lucic←▼L. Weigand

76'▲Y. Mohammed←▼C. Kobelt

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 substitutes

StephanMeierRankLucicMohammedMensah

Manager: M. Drobe

78'▲T. Wegener←▼B. Klocke

86'▲K. Valentin Kruse←▼M. Lippert

86'▲S. Wolker←▼D. Richter

89'▲M. Fucik←▼A. Zaloha

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

WegenerKruseWolkerFucik

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Richter (17'), T. Krüger (66' pen), N. Möllers (67').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite in Erfurt.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19