Rostov U20 2–1 Sochi U20: Result & Stats

Rostov U20

FT

2 – 1

Sochi U20

9/23/2020

Youth Championship · Round 3Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rostov U2039%

×Draw24%

Sochi U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostov U20Expected goals in this matchSochi U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.52

Rostov U20

1.58

Sochi U20

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 92 away

1.45

creates per match

1.33

1.70

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Rostov U20

1.45

Sochi U20

1.33

allows per match

Rostov U20

1.70

Sochi U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostov U20+0.00on par

Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U20 ↓

Sochi U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rostov U20 or draw

63%

Rostov U20 or Sochi U20

76%

Draw or Sochi U20

61%

Winning margin

Rostov U20 wins by 2+

19%

Sochi U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rostov U20 1+ goals

79%

Rostov U20 2+ goals

47%

Rostov U20 3+ goals

21%

Sochi U20 1+ goals

78%

Sochi U20 2+ goals

45%

Sochi U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rostov U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U20 attack 1.45 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Rostov U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rostov U20 scores more

39%

level

24%

Sochi U20 scores more

37%

Rostov U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rostov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff